Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. That is a very good thing to have. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Thus it would appear that bellwether. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Medicare is becoming a joke. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. What happened to our Democratic Party? Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Pre-performance Lobby events. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I would never vote any other way. I am under that impression. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. You have to take the lesser of two evils. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. It will cycle through. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. We were as far down to five cooks last year. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? He isnt so sure about Biden. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. In addition to Florida Gov. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. He cares about the American people.. Two states have announced recounts. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Im not happy with the way things are now. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. He considers Trump pro-life. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Jim Hoft. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Please read our comments policy before commenting. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. And we just want that to continue. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. He is his own worst enemy.. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. We dont want it, she said. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. I find that hard to believe. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. Port Clinton, Ohio. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. But according to the. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. It was easy. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. I hope.. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. We have become so divided. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. Logistically, its a disaster. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Theyre scared. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in.

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